An Examination of the Annual Average Rainfall in Jamaica, 1999-2018
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Abstract
Introduction: The meteorological processes that control rainfall is studied intensely to learn more about how rainfall is distributed locally and globally. ("Rainfall | Encyclopedia.com", 2022). Mean Annual Rainfall means the average total amount of rainfall recorded during a year in a particular place. Between the years 1999 and 2018; 2010 was recorded as the highest mean rainfall with an annual average of 2597mm in Jamaica.
Objective: This research aimed to provide information on the impact of climate change that affected rainfall in Jamaica, whether negatively or positively during the period 1999 to 2018.
Methods and materials: This study utilized data series for a period of 20 years (1999 - 2018). The data was gathered from and published by The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) and sourced from the Meteorological Services of Jamaica. The MET's Weather Branch is concerned with observing and forecasting weather conditions over and around the island. (MET, 2021). The Secondary time series data analysis refers to the use of existing research data to find answers to a question that was different from the original work. The data that was sourced was then listed, reserved, recovered, and processed using the Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS), Version 28.0 for Windows 11 operating systems. The methods of analysis include descriptive statistics, a measure of central tendency, a measure of dispersion, tables that are being used to observe trends in the data set and histograms. However specific data points could be taken directly from the initial table that includes a mean value for the rainfall each year of 20 years (1999 - 2018). Additionally, scatter plot graphs were done to determine the function of the data collected and bar graphs were created using Microsoft Excel LTSC 2021.
Findings: The results indicated that the annual mean rainfall in Jamaica from 1999 to 2018 has declined steadily. The researchers felt there was a need to raise public awareness about the annual mean rainfall in Jamaica. The research has shown that increased temperatures, hurricanes, and prevailing winds from the northeast trade winds were just some of the factors that affected the distribution of rainfall in Jamaica. One limitation of this research was the limited access to information locally to match the hypothesis of our research, nonetheless, we persevered. Further studies will be needed to fully resolve the impact of climate change on rainfall in Jamaica
Conclusion: The data collected for the period of 20 years from 1999-2018 was retrieved from The Statistical Institute of Jamaica on the Annual Mean Rainfall in Jamaica. Jamaica heavily depends on rainfall for a variety of purposes, including domestic, commercial, and crop irrigation. For the past two decades, there has been a -12.3985 per cent change in the Annual Average Rainfall for 20 years in Jamaica. This suggests that the average rainfall for the 20 years under investigation has decreased over the past 2 decades.