DO INTENTIONAL HOMICIDES IN THE US, POLITICAL GOVERNANCE, AND MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN JAMAICA IMPACT ON HOMICIDE AND RAPE RATES IN JAMAICA? A GOVERNANCE EXPLANATION

Abstract

Political rhetoric aside, the matter of criminality in the context of a society that takes its cues from the governing classes, entrenched generationally,the plantocracy from which it was born, is a grave matter, and begs for empirical lens to be applied. The study seeks to examine links with politics, economics, and violent crimes (homicides and rapes) with a view of adding to the empirical body of works in the English speaking Caribbean. Time series data from 1970-2015 from various sources, were analysed through multivariate analysis employing Pearson Product Moment correlation. A significance P ≤ 5% (i.e. 0.05) was employed. For the periods under study homicide rate per 100,000 under the PNP was 32.8 ± 15.0, 95% CI: 26-38.9, which is not statistically different from the JLP: 28.7 ± 18.1, 95% CI: 18.6-38.7 (t = 0.601, P = 0.554). Under the PNP, rape per 100,000 was 46.3 ± 11.9, 95% C.I.:41.5-57.1 compared to that of the JLP, which is not statistically different: 40.6 ± 8.7, 95% C.I: 35.7-45.4 (t=1.785, P = 0.083). The macro-economic indicators and governance accounted for 83.8 % of the variance of homicides in Jamaica, while these indicators and governance having influence accounting for 30.9% of the variance in rape rate in Jamaica. Governance was shown to positively affect homicide and rape rates in Jamaica, which empirically establishes that the governance of Jamaica positively influences both homicide and rape rates.