THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON HOMICIDE AND RAPE IN JAMAICA: AN EMPIRICAL INQUIRY THAT REVISITS THE OLD POVERTY-HOMICIDE PARADIGM

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: It is historically demonstrable that the Caribbean was instituted on intentional killing of humans and unadulterated rape. These have continued almost unbridled in today’s seemingly dysfunctional societies. Despite the plethora of empirical and qualitative studies that have been conducted on those phenomena, the Caribbean is featured among the top 10 nations with the most homicides per 100,000 people in the last decade. Chief among the promulgated factors is poverty-an explanation which is referred to as the poverty-homicide paradigm.  
OBJECTIVES: This study examined 1) the poverty-homicide paradigm; 2) macroeconomic indicators (i.e. GDP per capita; exchange rate; inflation; unemployment, and poverty) and their influence on homicide rates, and 3) macroeconomic conditions’ influence over poverty rates.  
METHODS AND MATERIALS: This paper used secondary panel data collated from various government publications as well as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The data period spans 1980-2015, however, the data for poverty is constrained between 1989 and 2015. Multivariate analyses were used to analyse the data, evaluate hypotheses and establish models.  
FINDINGS: For the studied period, the average rate of intentional killings in Jamaica was 40.4±13.1 per 100,000 compared to 50.5±8.2 per 100,000 mid-year population for rape and carnal abuse. All five macroeconomic indicatorsexchange rate; inflation rate; GDP per capita; unemployment rate, and poverty rate-collectively account for 82.3% of the variability in homicide rates (adjusted squared R=77.6%; F=17.611, P<0.001) and 39.5% (adjusted squared R=23.6%; F=2.482, P=0.068) of variability in rape rate in Jamaica. In fact, unemployment and poverty rates account for 53.7% of the variance in intentional homicide rates in Jamaica, with the GDP having the least effect on the homicide.  
CONCLUSION: The poverty-homicide paradigm must be changed to reflect the new reality as it is not increasing the homicide pandemic in Jamaica.